CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID 06Z SAT 19/02 - 06Z SUN 20/02 2005
ISSUED: 18/02 20:53Z
FORECASTER: DAHL

General thunderstorms are forecast across central Mediterranean and the Aegean Sea.

SYNOPSIS

Upper trough ATTM over the North Sea is progged to continue digging S ... thereby merging with SE-European upper trough ... resulting in extensive long-wave trough covering most of Europe by the end of the period.

DISCUSSION

...North Sea and coastal areas...
Beneath upper thermal trough ... shallow cellular convection may occur over the North Sea and the German/Dutch coasts. ATTM it looks that lightning strikes will be very isolated at best ... and a TSTM outlook os not necessary ATTM.

...Ionian and Aegean Sea...
Coverage of TSTMS over the central Mediterranean should decrease ... spreading into the Ionian/Aegean Sea during the day. Brief/short lines of TSTMS may occur given moderately strong deep shear ... but severe TSTM threat looks to be rather slim given minimal CAPE and weak low-level shear.

...SEE TEXT area...
As vort max overspreads the Alps ... cyclogenesis is expected to occur over N Italy late in the period. Models agree in generating weak CAPE over the Adriatic and Tyrrhenian Sea. CAPE should be minimal ... but increasing low-level shear in association with falling pressures may support an isolated mesocyclone or two. Severe threat is too low for a SLGT however. Best setup appears to evolve over the Tyrrhenian Sea late Saturday night/early Sunday morning.

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